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Q&A: Today's Market

Do you think we're heading toward a recession?

Two quarters of negative GDP growth defines a “recession.” Trust me, we are nowhere near a recession. Why am I so confident? The flash estimate of third-quarter GDP growth was recently revised higher to 4.9% due to the strongest productivity surge (to 4.9%) in 4 years, falling labor costs (down 0.2%) and booming September exports. The third-quarter GDP growth was the strongest in years. However, the GDP growth for the fourth, first and second quarters are expected to slow according to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony. This tells me that the Fed will likely be lowering interest rates for the next few months. I expect that by the time the November 2008 Presidential elections near that the U.S. economy will be firing on all cylinders and growing at approximately a 5% annual pace.

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Week of 07.21.08
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