Louis Navellier:
I'm sure you agree when I say that I'm pretty tired of all the bad news out there. When J.C. Penney (JCP), one of the country's largest retailers, cut its first-quarter earnings guidance, its shares tumbled 12%. Consumer spending has obviously dried up, and the economic indicators now say that we've unofficially entered a recession.
But while stocks like J.C. Penney may get hit, our Emerging Growth retail stocks, like Guess (GES), are thriving–Guess was up 9% after its recent earnings report! Trust me, this is no accident.
With nearly 30 years of investment experience and 5,163% gains to show for it–through markets both good and bad–our Emerging Growth system has perfected the art of uncovering those stocks that will not only weather the market's turbulence, but actually outperform during uncertain times.
So let's take a look at Guess. It was founded as a designer jeans manufacturer, but its operations have expanded to include upscale apparel and accessories for men, women and children. Surprisingly, its trademark ads are designed in-house. Guess sells its lines through about 290 retail and outlet stores to department stores, through more than 240 licensee stores in about 40 countries and on its website. The company also licenses its name for a wide line of accessories.
Guess' fourth-quarter earnings surged 20% to $55.2 million, or $0.59 per share, from $45.9 million, or just $0.49 per share last year. It has strong growth in Europe and Asia to thank for it. Sales rose 30% to $514.6 million. Analysts only expected $0.57 per share on $470 million in revenue, so GES posted a 3.5% earnings surprise and a 9.5% sales surprise!
Now, to be fair, Guess does predict a slower Q1, with earnings per share of $0.44 compared with analysts' $0.47 estimates. But that didn't seem to affect the stock–shares were up 2% on the news. There's no guesswork here: Well-run companies with solid earnings growth have what it takes to go the distance–even during uncertain market environments. My Emerging Growth readers are sitting on 119% profits in GES since March 2006!
What’s your take?
We want to know what you think! Email us your thoughts and then look for a special confirmation email in your inbox.
or send your comments to stockoftheweek@navelliergrowth.com
Stan Yackoski, 04.02.08:
I like GES but am fighting the urge to give up. I bought in to Louis's newsletter and 200 shares of GES because of it at the October peak. So I have a list of stocks I've been beat up on since. Through some aggressive call selling I've managed to only be down 8% since. I'm going to hang on to it through the next earnings season which looks like it will miss the street estimates. While I have plenty of short losses to cover my option activity I've added the losses in this play already in my mind.Roger Hawkins, 04.01.08:
Frankly, I was left "guessing" as to whether GES is the stock of the week, though that seems to be the case. Is there a "buy below" and price objective on this stock?Gary Anderson, 04.01.08:
I think the site is informative and easy to use.Tom Miller, 04.01.08:
Another excellent selection for the stock of the week. Although retail has been rough latley a few companies are still executing and making money. Those are the stocks that will soar when the consumer returns and Guess appears to be the best of the bunch right now. Any retailer beating estimates right now should be a part of a growth portfolio. thanks for bringing this stock to my attention!Luke Bradford, 04.01.08:
I nearly bought JCP but thank god I didn1! You had it as a F in PortfolGrader so I got 200 shrs of GES @ 40 before the split. Now it's run to 40 again. Thank you LOUIS!!
Previous
Stocks of the Week:
05.07.08: Flowserve (FLS)
04.29.08: First Solar (FSLR)
04.23.08: McDonald's (MCD)
04.15.08: America Movil (AMX)
04.08.08: Mosaic (MOS)
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| Video Demo |
| Stock | Symbol | Grade | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital | NLY | B | BUY |
| Brookfield Ass | BAM | C | HOLD |
| Gladstone Comm | GOOD | C | HOLD |
| Kimco Realty C | KIM | C | HOLD |
| Plum Creek Tim | PCL | B | BUY |
| St. Joe Co. | JOE | C | HOLD |
| Washington Rea | WRE | C | HOLD |
| Stock | Symbol | Grade | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher & | CBK | D | SELL |
| Gymboree Corp. | GYMB | B | BUY |
| J.C. Penney Co | JCP | D | SELL |
| Macy's Inc. | M | D | SELL |
| Nordstrom Inc. | JWN | C | HOLD |
| Target Corp. | TGT | C | HOLD |
| Tiffany & Co. | TIF | C | HOLD |



