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The Sky's the Limit for Oil

05.22.08

In the latest chapter of election-year politics, oil industry executives have been getting grilled on Capitol Hill this week.

"People listening just don't get it ... when demand isn't going crazy, why are prices going crazy?" asked Sen. Herb Kohl, a Democrat from Wisconsin.

It’s a legitimate question: If people are really driving less and buying more fuel-efficient cars, how can oil continue to go up? If we use less, shouldn’t the price drop?

Well, it’s not that simple. Our current energy crisis is really about the other side of the supply-demand equation. There’s just not enough of it! Riding your bike to work may save a few gallons of gas, but it’s a drop in the bucket when there’s an oil deficit to the tune of a few million of barrels. The reality is that the supply of crude is limited, harder to access and more difficult to bring to market.

Senator Kohl has sponsored legislation seeking to allow antitrust actions against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries but even if it were possible to attack foreign governments in our courts—which it isn’t—it ignores the fact that the oil crunch is far more complicated than just opening the tap a little further.

Consider that Saudi Arabia has been exceeding its OPEC quotas for the past six months.  Specifically, in April, OPEC said Saudi Arabia produced 9 million barrels a day in April, which was down slightly from March, but 100,000 barrels per day over its quota.  However, more importantly, Saudi Arabia’s output consistently topped its 8.9 million barrel-quota for the past six months.

So why is crude still so costly? Because a few million barrels here and there don’t fix the long-term supply problems. Mexico, Norway, Russia and Venezuela are all experiencing declining crude oil production. The normal link between high crude oil prices and increasing oil production has been disrupted due to the fact that much on the new sources of crude oil are much more expensive to find and that it typically takes several years to bring new oil fields online.

The biggest recent news in the energy business is that Brazil recently announced a second major oil find off its east coast. But even though these new oil discoveries could be large, the oil would not hit the market anytime soon. Petrobras’ discovery is in an area known as the “presalt area,” which lies at water depth of more than 6,500 feet and beneath an additional 9,800 feet of sand and rock, as well as a 6,500-foot-thick salt layer. This makes crude oil production very challenging and expensive, similar to new deep-water finds in the Gulf of Mexico that have not yet been yielded oil.

All this shows there are no quick fixes to the high cost of crude. But it does show that oil services companies like Flowserve Corporation (FLS), one of my Top 10 picks for June in Emerging Growth, will continue to reap the benefits of the frantic rush for new sources of oil. It also shows how alternative energy companies like First Solar Inc. (FSLR), one of my Top 5 picks for June in Blue Chip Growth, have limitless potential for future growth.

Don’t get me wrong: The surging cost of oil is a big drain on many businesses, including automakers. On Thursday, Ford announced it likely won’t be in the black until 2009 at the earliest and may have to cut jobs or close auto plants. It just so happens that record oil prices mean record profits for those who are dealing in one of the most valuable commodities on the world market right now. Once the market changes, some of the current darlings of the market may be just spinning their wheels.

My Blue Chip Growth and Emerging Growth portfolios are full of companies cashing in on the record price of oil. And once the current energy crunch is almost over, we’ll take our profits and put them behind the new market leaders. Nobody likes the increased cost of filling up their SUV, but investing your money wisely will make that $4 a gallon gas a little easier to pump. Join Blue Chip Growth or Emerging Growth today!

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BP PLC (ADS)BPCHOLD
Chevron Corp.CVXABUY
ConocoPhillipsCOPBBUY
Exxon Mobil CoXOMABUY
Occidental PetOXYABUY
Transocean IncRIGBBUY
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Abbott LaboratABTABUY
Amgen Inc.AMGNABUY
Covidien Ltd.COVABUY
Genentech Inc.DNAABUY
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