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Market Analysis
Why High Oil Prices Aren't Going Anywhere
09.09.08

Let's face it: Analysts on Wall Street are a dime a dozen. Unfortunately, there are so many of them that the market is sometimes duped into sticking with these so-called experts' flavor of the week. Thankfully, their faulty investment strategies always fall apart in the end, and the market wins.

Case in point—the false rally in financials. Before the U.S. government announced the Fannie and Freddie bailout, overeager analysts jumped the gun and steered investors straight into the financial sector. After the honeymoon was over and the flaws in the sector became all too clear (again!), investors evacuated the banks and brokerages and took refuge in more fundamentally superior stocks.

These superior stocks are mostly agriculture and energy companies—the same companies I've been recommending to subscribers across all four of my services.

One of the five biggest mistakes investors are making right now is that they're investing in banks and brokerages under the false pretense that these stocks are recovering.

Well, here's a news flash for you: They're not recovering.

Since I'm a numbers guy, I base my investment decisions solely on quantitative data, and right now the numbers are telling me that commodity and commodity-related stocks are the way to profit in this market.

You can see for yourself how these companies rate by plugging them into PortfolioGrader Pro, my FREE stock ranking tool.

But you don't have to take my word for it: Here's what the International Monetary Fund —the world's leading economic authority—had to say in its July 2008 World Economic Outlook update.

  • Origins of surging food and fuel prices. Thanks to the 2003-07 global growth boom, rapid growth in emerging and developing economies accelerated demand for commodities. Growth performance in conjunction with supply constraints led to the sharp run-up in food and fuel prices. Commodity prices usually respond strongly to demand or supply shocks, especially when inventories are limited.
  • Upward price momentum in oil market. Again, increasing demand against the backdrop of sluggish supply originally fueled prices higher. The IMF projects that widespread production and distribution capacity will take a long time to build up because of soaring investment costs, technological and policy constraints, as well as the run-down of existing oil fields. Any new oil discoveries will be largely offset by the depletion of old. Furthermore, the IMF expects sustained high oil prices will be the only way for oil refiners to make the massive investments required to expand supply.
  • Other factors: Geopolitical risks and financial conditions. Geopolitical risks—such as the Russia-Georgia conflict—can profoundly disrupt short-term oil supplies. Also, exchange rates often affect crude oil prices because 88% of the world's commodities are traded in dollars, and with a weak dollar, commodities' prices get pushed up.
  • Price surges in food commodities. Demand growth coming from emerging and developing economies continues to outstrip food supply. Global inventories for corn and grain crops have declined significantly in the last 10 years. Driving prices up are factors such as inclement weather conditions that reduce harvest yields, rising biofuel production in advanced economies, rising oil and energy prices that boost production costs, and growing export restrictions by food exporters to raise domestic food supplies.

So what does this all mean? Simply, oil and food prices will remain high and volatile over the long term. The recent pull back we've witnessed in commodities and energy markets are only temporary. Oil production won't expand quickly enough to offset further production declines from dried up fields; food markets will remain largely constrained by biofuel production and strong demand from emerging economies. All of these factors will exert pressure on commodities' prices going forward.

Don't be fooled by analysts who claim the commodities bubble has burst. The bottom line is, it hasn't. Commodity-related stocks have the strongest fundamentals and the greatest potential for continued growth the second half of 2008 and well into 2009!

And until PortfolioGrader Pro and the numbers indicate otherwise, I'm going to keep telling my subscribers to stay put.

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