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Market Analysis
Fed Interest Rates and Your Best Buying Opportunities
03.17.08

As I'm sure you've noticed, the stock market moves fast, and it can turn on a dime. On January 30, after the Fed cut interest rates for the second time in eight days, the Dow soared 200 points then took back those gains to end the day with a slight loss. Clearly, investors are reacting to any news event, but that's certainly not the best way to play this market.

For those of you who want to play it safe, I believe a great buying opportunity will present itself for conservative investors between March and May. Here are the catalysts:

  • Should monthly payroll reports improve, that would be a safe time to enter the market, because that would signal that businesses have resumed hiring new workers. Unfortunately, I don't believe this will happen anytime soon. The February payroll was a stomach-jolting surprise–instead of the 23,000 jobs analysts expected to be created, payrolls contracted by 63,000 jobs! This is further proof that the economy is slipping into a recession. In fact, this was a big reason why Fed interest rates were cut 0.75% at the Fed's March 18 meeting.  I keep a close eye on these payroll reports, and I let my subscribers know about breaking-news buying opportunities in our Weekly Updates and monthly newsletter Issues.

  • Speaking of the Fed, another good time to invest new money will be when the market realizes that the Fed is almost done cutting interest rates. When the Federal Funds rate finally falls to 2.0%, I expect the market to take off. At the pace the Fed's going, this could happen as soon as their April meeting.
  • Another good stockinvestment opportunity will unfold when crude oil prices finally stabilize, although I believe this will happen during the summer, when demand peaks.
  • Positive inflation news will set a good tone for the market, since that would give the Fed the go-ahead to continue cutting interest rates.

  • Reports of continued strong export growth, which should not let up anytime soon, mark another good entrance point. The fourth-quarter GDP estimate came in at 0.6%, and any strength should be attributed to export growth. Fortunately, my Emerging Growth subscribers are heavily exposed to export and dollar-related plays such as Diana Shipping (DSX) and America Movil (AMX).
  • When the President's tax rebate checks start arriving in the mail, I believe investors will want to put that money to good use.
  • Finally, the eventual end of the housing crisis will signal an excellent time to jump back into the market. Approximately four out of these seven factors will likely occur within the next few months, and the likelihood of six out of seven factors occurring is even possible.

Batten Down the Hatches

In the interim, a retest of the stock market's recent lows is inevitable despite the Fed's aggressive intervention. The good news is, many of my Emerging Growth stocks may not retest their lows due to their superior quantitative and fundamental criteria. These factors serve as the "force field" that can withstand virtually any market storm--and even if they do get hit, their solid fundamentals ensure that they'll bounce back quickly.

However, the broader market will most likely retest, since the banking industry and other financial stocks remain a mess.  In times like these, I'm especially proud that my readers and I are fully invested in the market's strongest stocks. Due to the exodus out of value and emerging market stocks, I remain convinced that the market's "seismic shift" out of value stocks, like financials, and into growth stocks like the stocks on my Emerging Growth Buy List, will continue.

Whether our best buying opportunities will happen in March after the Fed's FOMC meeting or in May when the stimulus checks arrive in the mail, hope is just around the corner. I remain committed to keeping my subscribers posted on every buying opportunity that comes our way, so try a risk-free trial to my Emerging Growth service today!  

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Week of 07.21.08
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Stock Symbol Grade  
BP PLC (ADS)BPBBUY
Chevron Corp.CVXBBUY
Exxon Mobil CoXOMCHOLD
Hess Corp.HESABUY
PetroChina Co.PTRBBUY
Sunoco Inc.SUNDSELL
Tesoro Corp.TSOFSELL
Stock Symbol Grade  
Brinker InternEATCHOLD
CBRL Group IncCBRLDSELL
Cheesecake FacCAKECHOLD
DineEquity IncDINFSELL
P.F. Chang's CPFCBCHOLD
Ruby Tuesday IRTFSELL
Ruth's HospitaRUTHFSELL
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